Emerging Cybersecurity Challenges: Spotlight on Quantum Security

By Marton Szoke, Serial Entrepreneur, Investor, Venture Partner at Radix Ventures

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Introduction

Generative AI and deepfake technology have captured public attention in recent years, commanding headlines for their uncanny ability to manipulate visuals and audio. Yet lurking behind these innovations is a potentially more disruptive force: quantum computing. Paired with the explosive expansion of Internet of Things (IoT) and edge devices, quantum computing has the capacity to reshape the cybersecurity landscape far sooner than many anticipate.

This article examines why organizations should pay close attention to two pivotal areas—quantum security and the rapid proliferation of connected devices—and how the new Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) standard introduced in 2024 is accelerating compliance demands for enterprises around the globe.

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2024: A Watershed Year for Quantum Computing

Google’s “Willow” Breakthrough

A significant milestone emerged from Google in 2024 with the unveiling of its Willow quantum chip. Willow accomplishes an elusive goal in quantum error correction: as more qubits are added, error rates decrease instead of rising. This achievement, known as “below threshold” error correction, has been a decades-long target in the field. Willow also performed a random circuit sampling calculation in under five minutes—an operation Google estimates would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10^25 years, vastly exceeding the age of the universe.

From a purely technical vantage, this breakthrough outshines most other quantum developments in 2024. It addresses the biggest barrier to scalable quantum computing—how to manage errors at increasing qubit counts—and demonstrates a “beyond-classical” speed-up that points toward commercial viability.

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The New PQC Standard

Even as Google’s announcement marks a critical turning point for quantum hardware, 2024 also saw the publication of a new Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) standard. Though less dazzling from a purely scientific standpoint, the implications for businesses and cybersecurity teams are enormous. Once governments and industry groups adopt a standard, compliance becomes mandatory—regardless of whether quantum computers can realistically break today’s encryption in five years or twenty.

From a cybersecurity business perspective, the new PQC standard may eclipse even the Willow breakthrough. As soon as a standard exists, vendors and enterprises must begin quantum-safe upgrades to stay compliant—revising roadmaps, allocating budgets, and overhauling systems before the ink is even dry on their current strategies. In practical terms, this standard will likely accelerate post-quantum migration more than any purely technical advancement or as the popular saying goes: “there’s no security need, only a compliance need.”

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The Quantum Security Debate

Door-to-Door Detective vs. Citywide Surveillance

Quantum computing departs from traditional binary-based processing by leveraging qubits that can occupy multiple states simultaneously (a phenomenon called superposition). A useful analogy compares classical decryption to a detective who knocks on each door in a vast city, one by one, searching for the right key. In contrast, quantum decryption resembles citywide surveillance, where all doors are scanned at once—dramatically cutting the time it takes to find the correct solution.

Some industry leaders, such as NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, believe practical quantum computing remains 15 to 20 years away. He points to challenges like qubit error rates and overall system stability. If this longer horizon is accurate, cybersecurity teams have a window to prepare their systems and adopt quantum-safe protocols at a measured pace.

However, history is full of examples where even visionaries underestimated the pace of technological change. Ken Olsen of Digital Equipment Corporation once questioned the need for home computers and Bill Gates was famously associated (though he disputes it) with the idea that “640K ought to be enough for anybody”. The lesson is clear: the real danger lies in assuming that progress will move no faster than the most conservative forecasts predict.

A worst-case scenario would see rapid breakthroughs in materials science or quantum error correction, bringing about quantum computers powerful enough to crack RSA or ECC encryption much earlier than expected. Such a sudden leap would create a global scramble to protect financial records, defense systems, and sensitive intellectual property. The shockwave would likely be felt in every sector, from healthcare and banking to logistics and critical infrastructure.

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The Growing Risks of IoT and Edge Devices

In parallel with the quantum debate, the Internet of Things continues to expand at a breathtaking pace, with countless new sensors, wearables, and industrial systems coming online each year. Edge computing brings data processing closer to the user or the machine, thereby increasing efficiency but also enlarging the attack surface. Each device—often designed with minimal security considerations—can be a gateway for cybercriminals to infiltrate broader networks.

Basic mistakes such as weak passwords, out-of-date firmware, and unencrypted data transmissions remain common. Attackers can exploit these vulnerabilities for denial-of-service attacks or for deeper intrusions into corporate networks. When quantum computing eventually matures, even devices perceived as low-priority risks could become targets if they rely on cryptography that no longer stands up against quantum-based decryption methods.

While it may seem premature to worry about post-quantum solutions for tiny sensors or microcontrollers, the new PQC standard underscores the inevitability that eventually, all classes of devices will require quantum-safe protocols. Retrofitting billions of IoT devices and upgrading hardware to accommodate more complex cryptographic operations could be a mammoth task, both logistically and financially.

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Conclusion

Generative AI and deepfake technology have seized public imagination, but quantum computing poses an even more fundamental threat to our cryptographic foundations. Coupled with the rapid proliferation of IoT and edge devices, cybersecurity is hurtling toward a future that demands greater foresight and adaptability.

In a best-case scenario, it could take one or two decades before quantum machines become capable of breaching current encryption at scale, giving organizations time to adopt post-quantum safeguards. But if breakthroughs arrive sooner, the industry may face a panicked rush to protect data and infrastructure.

With the new PQC standard in place as of 2024, compliance emerges as the driving force behind quantum-safe adoption. The standard compels organizations to move forward—regardless of their opinions on how soon the threat will materialize. Those that invest in quantum resilience, conduct thorough cryptographic assessments, and implement secure-by-design practices for IoT devices will be far better positioned to navigate whatever timeline ultimately unfolds.

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